The Presidential Primaries - The Day After Super Tuesday 2008
Russell Renka
Wednesday, February 6, 2008

    The two parties have always differed in delegate allocation from primaries since these things began in earnest during the 1970s.  Republicans "behave like a party," using winner-take-all to find a decisive winner as quickly as possible.  Democrats behave like, well, Democrats, indulging their internal factions and contenders far more than Republicans will.  So they adopted fairly strict PR or proportional representation.  Super Tuesday 2008 gave us a special opportunity to see the dramatic difference this makes in converting votes into delegates.

    So Republican John McCain won a disproportionate share of delegates compared to popular vote, courtesy of winner-take-all delegate allocation rules in all 21 Republican state primaries (including California in a modified form).  Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama split their vote and delegates right down the middle, and not only in our closely watched storm-ridden State of Missouri.  It was also true in the nation.  So my original title ("The General Election Starts Today") will not hold for the Democrats.  Their contest is another month's duration; and you can bet that Texas hispanics among that nation-state's 228 Democratic delegates will be showered with gifts between now and March 5.

    Not that Super Tuesday 2008 lacked a surprise.  Mike Huckabee had one in store, aimed straight at Mitt Romney.  Check those southern states and southwest Missouri, wherever there were high proportions of evangelical and fundamentalist Christian voters.  Mike Huckabee won the Southeast Conference; he thrived there, and there alone. 

    But he had some advertent help from John McCain in the mountain outpost of West Virginia.  Huckabee "won" West Virginia's winner-take-all by the British-styled move of McCain supporters from their man to Mike (NPR Election 2008# - map of West Virginia Republicans).  Mitt was left out in the rain as Huckabee52/McCain1 combined to beat Romney's 47 popular vote.  That harvested an 18 to 0 shutout of Romney in Republican delegates.

    In winner-take-all country with 3 or more viable competitors, two always beats one when two can cooperate.  This was helped along by some personal dynamics.  It's pretty evident that John McCain gets along with Mike Huckabee, and with Rudy Guiliani.  Romney doesn't get along with any of them.  They all resent his money and his style, and they most definitely do collaborate against him.  That will continue, and McCain will be the Republican nominee.

    Just check the links from the New York Times and Washington Post and CNN.com and NPR below with their accompanying summary analyses, and you can confirm some of these things for yourself.

Russell Renka

Sources:

   ° Politics - Campaign 2008 - New York Times at www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.html; follow links

   ° Washington Post Politics index at www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/politics/index.html; forward to "The Potomac Primary" of February 12

   ° Election Center 2008 - Election & Politics News from CNN.com at www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/ ... to
Democrats - 2008 Delegate Scorecard
Republicans - 2008 Delegate Scorecard

   ° National Public Radio - NPR Election 2008/primaries

   ° The 2008 presidential primaries - The Green Papers, Election 2008 - Primary, Caucus, and Convention Phase; GWU, P2008 - The 2008 Presidential Campaign; and Politics1 - 2008 U.S. Presidential Election (P2008)

   ° 2008 primary/caucus calendars:  National Council of State Legislatures, Presidential Primaries Calendar 2008; The Green Papers, 2008 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Chronologically

   ° campaign money:  Federal Election Commission, Presidential Campaign Finance at www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do

   ° campaign advertising:  CMAG (Campaign Media Analysis Group) at www.politicsontv.com

   ° polls:  PollingReport.com at www.pollingreport.com/; and Election 2008 at www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

   ° 2004 general election:  Professor Renka, The Election of 2004 and Presidential Elections through 2004; Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections and its 2004 Presidential Election Results, including the 2004 county by county map

   ° presidential election history:  Renka, Presidential Election Maps, by County (1860 through 2004);

   ° presidents and congress:  Renka, Party Control of the Presidency and Congress, 1933-2008